S&P 500
IndexAverage S&P 500 return
Over the last 10 years the S&P 500 has returned an average of +15.2% per year with dividends reinvested — +13.4% from price alone, and +11.6% after inflation. Since 1994 the annualized figure is +10.6%. Every standard window, through Sep 4, 2026:
| Window | Since | Total return /yr | Price only /yr | Dividends /yr | After inflation /yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Sep 4, 2025 | +19.99% | +18.67% | +1.32% | +16.90% |
| 3 years | Sep 5, 2023 | +21.20% | +19.70% | +1.50% | +18.02% |
| 5 years | Sep 7, 2021 | +12.82% | +11.30% | +1.52% | +8.61% |
| 10 years | Sep 6, 2016 | +15.24% | +13.41% | +1.83% | +11.64% |
| 15 years | Sep 6, 2011 | +15.36% | +13.39% | +1.97% | +12.48% |
| 20 years | Sep 5, 2006 | +11.23% | +9.24% | +2.00% | +8.53% |
| 30 years | Sep 4, 1996 | +10.39% | +8.55% | +1.85% | +7.69% |
| 33.6 years (all data) | Jan 29, 1993 | +10.64% | +8.90% | +1.74% | +7.90% |
Annualized (CAGR) from SPY daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.
The years behind the average#
“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 32 full calendar years, the market finished positive 78% of the time, with a best year of +37.3% (1995) and a worst of -36.8% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +12.1% and the median +15.8% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +10.6%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.
Where the returns came from#
Every dollar of long-run return traces to three sources: dividends you collect and reinvest, growth in the earnings behind the index, and the change in what investors will pay for those earnings (the P/E multiple). The identity is exact — price is earnings times the multiple — so these three components multiply out to the total. Inflation splits that earnings growth again — part of it is real, part is just prices rising — so the full identity has four terms. Over the last 150 years the S&P 500 returned +9.6% a year in nominal terms: +4.2% from dividends, +2.2% from real earnings growth, +0.6% from the multiple (which drifted from 12.3× to 29.4×), and +2.3% from inflation. Strip inflation out and the real return is +7.1% a year — dividends and real business growth do the work; the multiple contributes almost nothing over a long horizon.
| Window | Dividends | Real earnings | P/E change | Inflation | Nominal /yr | Real /yr | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yearfrom Sep 2025 | +0.8% | +18.2% | -4.7% | +2.6% | +16.6% | +13.6% | |
| 3 yearsfrom Sep 2023 | +1.1% | +9.0% | +8.7% | +2.7% | +23.1% | +19.8% | |
| 5 yearsfrom Sep 2021 | +1.3% | +3.9% | +3.0% | +3.9% | +12.6% | +8.4% | |
| 10 yearsfrom Sep 2016 | +1.6% | +7.7% | +2.0% | +3.2% | +15.1% | +11.5% | |
| 20 yearsfrom Sep 2006 | +1.8% | +3.5% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +11.1% | +8.4% | |
| 30 yearsfrom Sep 1996 | +1.8% | +4.2% | +1.5% | +2.5% | +10.3% | +7.6% | |
| 50 yearsfrom Sep 1976 | +2.6% | +3.1% | +2.0% | +3.6% | +11.8% | +7.9% | |
| 100 yearsfrom Sep 1926 | +3.7% | +2.4% | +1.0% | +3.0% | +10.4% | +7.2% | |
| 150 yearsfrom Sep 1876 | +4.2% | +2.2% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +9.6% | +7.1% |
Computed on Shiller monthly index data through Sep 2026 — index price, as-reported trailing earnings (extended past the source's reporting lag by our own aggregate of constituent earnings from SEC filings) and the total-return index, with inflation from Shiller's CPI (chained to FRED past its lag). Month-end endpoints, so totals differ slightly from the daily table above. The four components multiply out to the nominal total exactly — bar widths are their log contributions, so each segment's share is honest. Over one- and three-year windows earnings are volatile and the multiple dominates, which is the point: short-run returns are mostly re-pricing, long-run returns are mostly dividends and real business growth.
Related#
See each year individually on S&P 500 returns by year, or check this year's YTD so far.