Average S&P 500 return
Over the last 10 years the S&P 500 has returned an average of +14.9% per year with dividends reinvested — +13.1% from price alone, and +11.3% after inflation. Since 1994 the annualized figure is +10.5%. Every standard window, through Jul 17, 2026:
| Window | Since | Total return /yr | Price only /yr | Dividends /yr | After inflation /yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Jul 17, 2025 | +19.34% | +18.34% | +1.00% | +15.61% |
| 3 years | Jul 18, 2023 | +19.22% | +17.85% | +1.37% | +16.06% |
| 5 years | Jul 19, 2021 | +13.30% | +11.84% | +1.46% | +8.99% |
| 10 years | Jul 18, 2016 | +14.93% | +13.14% | +1.79% | +11.31% |
| 15 years | Jul 18, 2011 | +14.22% | +12.29% | +1.92% | +11.34% |
| 20 years | Jul 17, 2006 | +11.37% | +9.40% | +1.98% | +8.69% |
| 30 years | Jul 17, 1996 | +10.37% | +8.54% | +1.83% | +7.66% |
| 33.5 years (all data) | Jan 29, 1993 | +10.55% | +8.82% | +1.73% | +7.80% |
Annualized (CAGR) from SPY daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.
The years behind the average
“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 32 full calendar years, the market finished positive 78% of the time, with a best year of +37.3% (1995) and a worst of -36.8% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +12.1% and the median +15.8% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +10.5%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.
Where the returns came from
Every dollar of long-run return traces to three sources: dividends you collect and reinvest, growth in the earnings behind the index, and the change in what investors will pay for those earnings (the P/E multiple). The identity is exact — price is earnings times the multiple — so these three components multiply out to the total. Inflation splits that earnings growth again — part of it is real, part is just prices rising — so the full identity has four terms. Over the last 150 years the S&P 500 returned +9.5% a year in nominal terms: +4.2% from dividends, +2.2% from real earnings growth, +0.5% from the multiple (which drifted from 13.0× to 28.4×), and +2.4% from inflation. Strip inflation out and the real return is +7.0% a year — dividends and real business growth do the work; the multiple contributes almost nothing over a long horizon.
| Window | Dividends | Real earnings | P/E change | Inflation | Nominal /yr | Real /yr | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yearfrom Jun 2025 | +0.8% | +13.9% | +2.5% | +3.5% | +21.9% | +17.8% | |
| 3 yearsfrom Jun 2023 | +1.2% | +9.4% | +5.8% | +2.8% | +20.4% | +17.1% | |
| 5 yearsfrom Jun 2021 | +1.3% | +5.9% | +1.2% | +4.0% | +13.0% | +8.6% | |
| 10 yearsfrom Jun 2016 | +1.6% | +8.0% | +1.7% | +3.2% | +15.2% | +11.6% | |
| 20 yearsfrom Jun 2006 | +1.9% | +3.8% | +2.6% | +2.5% | +11.3% | +8.6% | |
| 30 yearsfrom Jun 1996 | +1.8% | +4.3% | +1.3% | +2.5% | +10.2% | +7.5% | |
| 50 yearsfrom Jun 1976 | +2.6% | +3.2% | +1.9% | +3.6% | +11.8% | +7.9% | |
| 100 yearsfrom Jun 1926 | +3.7% | +2.4% | +1.1% | +3.0% | +10.5% | +7.3% | |
| 150 yearsfrom Jun 1876 | +4.2% | +2.2% | +0.5% | +2.4% | +9.5% | +7.0% |
Computed on Shiller monthly index data through Jun 2026 — index price, as-reported trailing earnings (extended past the source's reporting lag by our own aggregate of S&P 500 constituent earnings from SEC filings) and the total-return index, with inflation from Shiller's CPI (chained to FRED past its lag). Month-end endpoints, so totals differ slightly from the daily table above. The four components multiply out to the nominal total exactly — bar widths are their log contributions, so each segment's share is honest. Over one- and three-year windows earnings are volatile and the multiple dominates, which is the point: short-run returns are mostly re-pricing, long-run returns are mostly dividends and real business growth.
Related
See each year individually on S&P 500 returns by year, check this year's YTD so far, or compound the average yourself with the $10,000 growth calculator.