Average S&P 500 return
Over the last 10 years the S&P 500 has returned +15.5% a year (CAGR) with dividends reinvested — +13.7% from price alone, and +11.7% after inflation. Since 1994 the annualized figure is +10.8%. Every standard window, through Oct 20, 2026:
| Window | Since | Total return /yr | Price only /yr | Dividends /yr | After inflation /yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Oct 20, 2025 | +15.81% | +14.57% | +1.24% | +12.07% |
| 3 years | Oct 23, 2023 | +23.85% | +22.36% | +1.49% | +20.25% |
| 5 years | Oct 20, 2021 | +12.69% | +11.20% | +1.50% | +8.39% |
| 10 years | Oct 20, 2016 | +15.46% | +13.65% | +1.81% | +11.72% |
| 15 years | Oct 21, 2011 | +14.92% | +12.94% | +1.98% | +11.94% |
| 20 years | Oct 20, 2006 | +11.03% | +9.02% | +2.01% | +8.23% |
| 30 years | Oct 21, 1996 | +10.13% | +8.26% | +1.87% | +7.40% |
| 33.7 years (all data) | Feb 8, 1993 | +10.75% | +8.79% | +1.96% | +7.98% |
Annualized (CAGR) from SPY daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.
The years behind the average#
“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 32 full calendar years, the market finished positive 81% of the time, with a best year of +38.1% (1995) and a worst of -36.8% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +12.3% and the median +16.0% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +10.8%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.
Where the returns came from#
Every dollar of long-run return traces to three sources: dividends you collect and reinvest, growth in the earnings behind the index, and the change in what investors will pay for those earnings (the P/E multiple). The identity is exact — price is earnings times the multiple — so these three components multiply out to the total. Inflation splits that earnings growth again — part of it is real, part is just prices rising — so the full identity has four terms. Over the last 150 years the S&P 500 returned +9.6% a year in nominal terms: +4.2% from dividends, +2.3% from real earnings growth, +0.5% from the multiple (which drifted from 12.5× to 25.4×), and +2.3% from inflation. Strip inflation out and the real return is +7.1% a year — dividends and real business growth do the work; the multiple contributes almost nothing over a long horizon.
| Window | Dividends | Real earnings | P/E change | Inflation | Nominal /yr | Real /yr | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yearfrom Oct 2025 | +1.0% | +23.1% | -10.5% | +3.3% | +15.1% | +11.4% | |
| 3 yearsfrom Oct 2023 | +1.2% | +13.9% | +3.7% | +3.0% | +23.1% | +19.5% | |
| 5 yearsfrom Oct 2021 | +1.4% | +6.3% | +0.9% | +4.0% | +13.0% | +8.7% | |
| 10 yearsfrom Oct 2016 | +1.6% | +9.1% | +0.8% | +3.3% | +15.4% | +11.7% | |
| 20 yearsfrom Oct 2006 | +1.9% | +4.2% | +2.0% | +2.6% | +11.1% | +8.3% | |
| 30 yearsfrom Oct 1996 | +1.8% | +4.6% | +1.0% | +2.5% | +10.2% | +7.5% | |
| 50 yearsfrom Oct 1976 | +2.6% | +3.4% | +1.8% | +3.6% | +11.9% | +8.0% | |
| 100 yearsfrom Oct 1926 | +3.7% | +2.6% | +0.9% | +3.0% | +10.5% | +7.3% | |
| 150 yearsfrom Oct 1876 | +4.2% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +2.3% | +9.6% | +7.1% |
Computed on Robert Shiller's public monthly series through Oct 2026 — index price, as-reported trailing earnings (held from the last quarter in that record) and the total-return index, with inflation from Shiller's CPI (chained to FRED past its lag). Month-end endpoints, so totals differ slightly from the daily table above. The four components multiply out to the nominal total exactly — bar widths are their log contributions, so each segment's share is honest. Over one- and three-year windows earnings are volatile and the multiple dominates, which is the point: short-run returns are mostly re-pricing, long-run returns are mostly dividends and real business growth.
Related#
See each year individually on S&P 500 returns by year, or check this year's YTD so far.
More on S&P 500
- Returns by year+13.7%
- Return drivers+17.7%
- Yearly charts+17.7%
- Trailing returns+15.8%
- YTD return+13.7%
- Sector performance+55.0%
- Return calculator$1,817
- Companies & weights500
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