S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio (CAPE): 39.8 as of Oct 20, 2026
The S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E (the CAPE ratio, also called the Shiller P/E or PE10) — price over the trailing ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings — stands at 39.8 as of Oct 20, 2026, higher than 98.6% of all months since 1881 (long-run median 16.6). Ten-year smoothing is the point: it looks through the earnings cycle that whipsaws the plain P/E (currently 26.1, updated daily).
CAPE since 1881#
- Latest
- 39.8
- Long-run median
- 16.6
- Lowest
- 4.8 · Dec 1920
- Highest
- 44.2 · Dec 1999
The dashed line is the long-run median. Famous extremes: Dec 1999 (44.2), 1929 (~30), and Dec 1920 (4.8). Months from Sep 2026 onward are past Shiller's own last published point: his exact construction on current prices, FRED CPI and the as-reported earnings in his record held from its last closed quarter.
Shiller PE ratio by year, 1881–2026#
Newest first. Each year's CAPE in January, its low and high, and what the next ten years returned from that January, in percent a year compounded (CAGR): the S&P 500's total return with dividends reinvested, after inflation. Blank where ten years have not yet passed.
| Year | CAPE (Jan) | Next 10 years, real total return (CAGR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026so far | 39.6 | — |
| 2025 | 37.1 | — |
| 2024 | 32.0 | — |
| 2023 | 28.3 | — |
| 2022 | 36.9 | — |
| 2021 | 34.5 | — |
| 2020 | 31.0 | — |
| 2019 | 28.4 | — |
| 2018 | 33.3 | — |
| 2017 | 28.1 | — |
| 2016 | 24.2 | +12.0% |
| 2015 | 26.5 | +10.0% |
| 2014 | 24.9 | +9.2% |
| 2013 | 21.9 | +9.5% |
| 2012 | 21.2 | +13.1% |
| 2011 | 23.0 | +11.7% |
| 2010 | 20.5 | +11.6% |
| 2009 | 15.2 | +12.0% |
| 2008 | 24.0 | +7.8% |
| 2007 | 27.2 | +5.1% |
| 2006 | 26.5 | +4.4% |
| 2005 | 26.6 | +5.6% |
| 2004 | 27.7 | +4.5% |
| 2003 | 22.9 | +4.7% |
| 2002 | 30.3 | +0.8% |
| 2001 | 37.0 | -0.8% |
| 2000 | 43.8 | -3.0% |
| 1999 | 40.6 | -4.4% |
| 1998 | 32.9 | +2.5% |
| 1997 | 28.3 | +5.5% |
| 1996 | 24.8 | +6.6% |
| 1995 | 20.2 | +9.0% |
| 1994 | 21.4 | +8.5% |
| 1993 | 20.3 | +6.9% |
| 1992 | 19.8 | +10.1% |
| 1991 | 15.6 | +14.6% |
| 1990 | 17.0 | +15.0% |
| 1989 | 15.1 | +15.4% |
| 1988 | 13.9 | +13.8% |
| 1987 | 14.9 | +10.5% |
| 1986 | 11.7 | +11.0% |
| 1985 | 10.0 | +10.2% |
| 1984 | 9.9 | +10.8% |
| 1983 | 8.8 | +11.5% |
| 1982 | 7.4 | +13.5% |
| 1981 | 9.3 | +9.0% |
| 1980 | 8.9 | +11.0% |
| 1979 | 9.3 | +9.6% |
| 1978 | 9.2 | +9.0% |
| 1977 | 11.4 | +7.9% |
| 1976 | 11.2 | +5.8% |
| 1975 | 8.9 | +6.5% |
| 1974 | 13.5 | +2.4% |
| 1973 | 18.7 | -1.7% |
| 1972 | 17.3 | -2.7% |
| 1971 | 16.5 | -0.2% |
| 1970 | 17.1 | -1.1% |
| 1969 | 21.2 | -2.9% |
| 1968 | 21.5 | -2.9% |
| 1967 | 20.4 | -0.2% |
| 1966 | 24.1 | -1.8% |
| 1965 | 23.3 | -3.5% |
| 1964 | 21.6 | +1.3% |
| 1963 | 19.3 | +5.9% |
| 1962 | 21.2 | +4.2% |
| 1961 | 18.5 | +4.9% |
| 1960 | 18.3 | +5.2% |
| 1959 | 18.0 | +7.4% |
| 1958 | 13.8 | +10.3% |
| 1957 | 16.7 | +8.0% |
| 1956 | 18.3 | +9.5% |
| 1955 | 16.0 | +11.3% |
| 1954 | 12.0 | +14.2% |
| 1953 | 13.0 | +12.4% |
| 1952 | 12.5 | +14.3% |
| 1951 | 11.9 | +14.2% |
| 1950 | 10.7 | +16.2% |
| 1949 | 10.2 | +17.6% |
| 1948 | 10.4 | +14.7% |
| 1947 | 11.5 | +15.0% |
| 1946 | 15.6 | +11.2% |
| 1945 | 12.0 | +11.9% |
| 1944 | 11.1 | +9.3% |
| 1943 | 10.2 | +11.1% |
| 1942 | 10.1 | +11.0% |
| 1941 | 13.9 | +7.1% |
| 1940 | 16.4 | +3.6% |
| 1939 | 15.6 | +2.1% |
| 1938 | 13.5 | +3.1% |
| 1937 | 21.6 | -0.2% |
| 1936 | 17.1 | +5.5% |
| 1935 | 11.5 | +6.8% |
| 1934 | 13.0 | +3.9% |
| 1933 | 8.7 | +6.5% |
| 1932 | 9.3 | +5.6% |
| 1931 | 16.7 | +2.7% |
| 1930 | 22.3 | +1.9% |
| 1929 | 27.1 | +0.5% |
| 1928 | 18.8 | +2.9% |
| 1927 | 13.2 | +10.6% |
| 1926 | 11.3 | +9.1% |
| 1925 | 9.7 | +6.7% |
| 1924 | 8.1 | +10.5% |
| 1923 | 8.2 | +6.2% |
| 1922 | 6.3 | +8.5% |
| 1921 | 5.1 | +16.3% |
| 1920 | 6.0 | +16.9% |
| 1919 | 6.1 | +18.3% |
| 1918 | 6.6 | +13.7% |
| 1917 | 11.0 | +5.9% |
| 1916 | 12.5 | +4.1% |
| 1915 | 10.4 | +4.6% |
| 1914 | 11.6 | +1.4% |
| 1913 | 13.1 | +0.5% |
| 1912 | 13.8 | -2.1% |
| 1911 | 14.0 | -3.8% |
| 1910 | 14.5 | -2.1% |
| 1909 | 14.8 | -1.8% |
| 1908 | 11.9 | +1.1% |
| 1907 | 17.2 | +2.4% |
| 1906 | 20.1 | +2.5% |
| 1905 | 18.5 | +2.0% |
| 1904 | 15.9 | +5.3% |
| 1903 | 20.3 | +4.5% |
| 1902 | 22.3 | +4.4% |
| 1901 | 21.0 | +5.5% |
| 1900 | 18.7 | +7.5% |
| 1899 | 22.9 | +5.7% |
| 1898 | 19.2 | +5.1% |
| 1897 | 17.0 | +9.5% |
| 1896 | 16.6 | +10.5% |
| 1895 | 16.5 | +8.8% |
| 1894 | 15.7 | +6.9% |
| 1893 | 17.7 | +7.7% |
| 1892 | 19.0 | +7.7% |
| 1891 | 15.4 | +8.6% |
| 1890 | 17.2 | +5.3% |
| 1889 | 15.8 | +7.8% |
| 1888 | 15.4 | +6.1% |
| 1887 | 17.5 | +3.9% |
| 1886 | 16.7 | +4.4% |
| 1885 | 13.1 | +7.2% |
| 1884 | 14.4 | +6.1% |
| 1883 | 15.3 | +7.1% |
| 1882 | 15.7 | +7.8% |
| 1881 | 18.5 | +4.5% |
Every month since 1881, as a distribution#
Each bar counts the months whose CAPE fell in that bin (hover for counts and example periods) — the green bin holds today. Most of history piles up between 10 and 25; readings like today's live in the right tail.
Bin width 1× earnings; a handful of extreme outliers fold into the edge bins. Today's reading is higher than 98.6% of all months on record.
FAQ#
- What is the Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio?
- The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio — price divided by the average of the past ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Smoothing a full business cycle of earnings removes the distortion that makes the plain P/E look cheap at earnings peaks and absurdly expensive in recessions (2009's plain P/E hit 120 because earnings collapsed, not because stocks were dear). Robert Shiller and John Campbell showed high CAPE readings have historically preceded lower long-run returns.
- What is the S&P 500's Shiller P/E now?
- About 39.8 (as of Oct 20, 2026), versus a long-run median of 16.6 since 1881 — higher than 98.6% of all months on record. The plain trailing P/E is 26.1.
- Does a high CAPE mean the market will fall?
- No — it has almost no power to time the next year. What the record shows is that high starting CAPEs have been followed by below-average returns over the next 10+ years, on average. The market spent most of the 1990s 'expensive' by CAPE while doubling. It is a long-horizon expected-return gauge, not a crash signal.
Notes & related#
Series: Robert Shiller's public long-run S&P 500 series (monthly) where published, extended through Oct 20, 2026 by our stitched estimate: the ten-year real-earnings average continues on current members' aggregate SEC-filed trailing earnings (scaled to match Shiller's level at the overlap), inflation-adjusted with FRED CPI, priced at the latest close. For what earnings are doing, see S&P 500 earnings; for the whole US market against the size of the economy, the Buffett indicator. Not investment advice.
More on S&P 500
- P/E ratio26.1
- Valuation bands26.1×
- Dividend yield1.07%
- Buyback yield1.50%
- Shareholder yield2.53%
- Companies & weights500
- Stock performance500
- Sector performance+55.0%
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