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Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio: 39.8 as of Jul 22, 2026

The S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E — price over the trailing ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings — stands at 39.8 as of Jul 22, 2026, higher than 98.7% of all months since 1881 (long-run median 16.6). Ten-year smoothing is the point: it looks through the earnings cycle that whipsaws the plain P/E (currently 27.5, updated daily).

CAPE since 1881

5152535461900192019401960198020002020
Latest
39.8
Long-run median
16.6
Lowest
4.8 · Dec 1920
Highest
44.2 · Dec 1999

The dashed line is the long-run median. Famous extremes: Dec 1999 (44.2), 1929 (~30), and Dec 1920 (4.8). Months from Oct 2023 onward are our estimate — Shiller's published series extended with SEC-filed aggregate earnings, FRED CPI and current prices (his exact construction, our stitched inputs).

Every month since 1881, as a distribution

Each bar counts the months whose CAPE fell in that bin (hover for example years) — the green bin holds today. Most of history piles up between 10 and 25; readings like today's live in the right tail.

5–6: 25 months (e.g. 1920, 1921, 1932)6–7: 33 months (e.g. 1917, 1918, 1919, 1982)7–8: 31 months (e.g. 1917, 1923, 1933, 1982)8–9: 57 months (e.g. 1917, 1924, 1979, 1984)9–10: 81 months (e.g. 1917, 1949, 1979, 1984)10–11: 84 months (e.g. 1907, 1943, 1974, 1985)11–12: 122 months (e.g. 1907, 1934, 1950, 1986)12–13: 77 months (e.g. 1884, 1926, 1951, 1986)13–14: 99 months (e.g. 1884, 1912, 1941, 2009)14–15: 81 months (e.g. 1882, 1909, 1946, 2009)15–16: 117 months (e.g. 1881, 1891, 1939, 2009)16–17: 111 months (e.g. 1881, 1895, 1955, 2009)17–18: 113 months (e.g. 1881, 1896, 1960, 1991)18–19: 99 months (e.g. 1881, 1904, 1956, 2009)19–20: 74 months (e.g. 1881, 1905, 1963, 2011)20–21: 71 months (e.g. 1898, 1962, 1993, 2012)21–22: 68 months (e.g. 1898, 1962, 1993, 2013)22–23: 54 months (e.g. 1899, 1961, 1968, 2013)23–24: 43 months (e.g. 1899, 1965, 2002, 2013)24–25: 25 months (e.g. 1901, 2003, 2014, 2020)25–26: 42 months (e.g. 1901, 2003, 2007, 2020)26–27: 38 months (e.g. 1996, 2005, 2014, 2016)27–28: 25 months (e.g. 1929, 1997, 2007, 2023)28–29: 21 months (e.g. 1929, 2017, 2022, 2023)29–30: 21 months (e.g. 1929, 2017, 2019, 2023)30–31: 19 months (e.g. 2001, 2017, 2020, 2023)31–32: 13 months (e.g. 1929, 2018, 2024)32–33: 17 months (e.g. 1929, 1997, 2018, 2025)33–34: 10 months (e.g. 1997, 2001, 2022, 2024)34–35: 8 months (e.g. 1998, 2021, 2024, 2025)35–36: 8 months (e.g. 1998, 2021, 2024, 2025)36–37: 13 months (e.g. 1998, 2021, 2024, 2026)37–38: 11 months (e.g. 1998, 2021, 2024, 2026)38–39: 11 months (e.g. 1998, 2021, 2025, 2026)39–40: 4 months (e.g. 2000, 2026) · now 39.8 · Jul 22, 202640–41: 3 months (e.g. 1999)41–42: 5 months (e.g. 1999, 2000)42–43: 13 months (e.g. 1999, 2000)now 39.8 · Jul 22, 20265101520253035401220

Bin width 1× earnings; a handful of extreme outliers fold into the edge bins. Today's reading is higher than 98.7% of all months on record.

FAQ

What is the Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio?
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio — price divided by the average of the past ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Smoothing a full business cycle of earnings removes the distortion that makes the plain P/E look cheap at earnings peaks and absurdly expensive in recessions (2009's plain P/E hit 120 because earnings collapsed, not because stocks were dear). Robert Shiller and John Campbell showed high CAPE readings have historically preceded lower long-run returns.
What is the S&P 500's Shiller P/E now?
About 39.8 (as of Jul 22, 2026), versus a long-run median of 16.6 since 1881 — higher than 98.7% of all months on record. The plain trailing P/E is 27.5.
Does a high CAPE mean the market will fall?
No — it has almost no power to time the next year. What the record shows is that high starting CAPEs have been followed by below-average returns over the next 10+ years, on average. The market spent most of the 1990s 'expensive' by CAPE while doubling. It is a long-horizon expected-return gauge, not a crash signal.

Notes & related

Series: Robert Shiller's long-run S&P data (monthly) where published, extended through Jul 22, 2026 by our stitched estimate: the ten-year real-earnings average continues on current members' aggregate SEC-filed trailing earnings (scaled to match Shiller's level at the overlap), inflation-adjusted with FRED CPI, priced at the latest close. For a same-day simple multiple see the current P/E ratio; for what earnings are doing, S&P 500 earnings. Not investment advice.

ChartRow is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P Global, or Nasdaq, Inc. "S&P 500®" and "Dow Jones®" are registered trademarks of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC; "Nasdaq-100®" is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. They are used here only to identify the indexes discussed. All index-related figures on this page are independently derived from public sources — SEC filings, Robert Shiller's public dataset, and our own computations — not from any index provider's data feed.