What is the Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio?

Price divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings — a business-cycle-smoothed P/E.

What is the S&P 500's Shiller P/E now?

About 40.3, vs a long-run median of 16.6.

Does a high CAPE mean the market will fall?

No. High CAPE has predicted below-average 10-year returns on average, not near-term declines.

Market proxy SPY$765.991D -0.55%as of market close, Sep 8, 2026

P/E ratio Shiller CAPE Valuation bands Dividend yield Buyback yield Shareholder yield

Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio: 40.3 as of Sep 8, 2026

The S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E — price over the trailing ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings — stands at 40.3 as of Sep 8, 2026, higher than 98.7% of all months since 1881 (long-run median 16.6). Ten-year smoothing is the point: it looks through the earnings cycle that whipsaws the plain P/E (currently 25.8, updated daily).

CAPE since 1881#

5152535461900192019401960198020002020median 16.6latest 40

Latest: 40.3
Long-run median: 16.6
Lowest: 4.8 · Dec 1920
Highest: 44.2 · Dec 1999

The dashed line is the long-run median. Famous extremes: Dec 1999 (44.2), 1929 (~30), and Dec 1920 (4.8). Months from Oct 2023 onward are our estimate — Shiller's published series extended with SEC-filed aggregate earnings, FRED CPI and current prices (his exact construction, our stitched inputs).

Every month since 1881, as a distribution#

Each bar counts the months whose CAPE fell in that bin (hover for counts and example periods) — the green bin holds today. Most of history piles up between 10 and 25; readings like today's live in the right tail.

now 40.3 · Sep 8, 20265101520253035401220

Bin width 1× earnings; a handful of extreme outliers fold into the edge bins. Today's reading is higher than 98.7% of all months on record.

FAQ#

What is the Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio?: The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio — price divided by the average of the past ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Smoothing a full business cycle of earnings removes the distortion that makes the plain P/E look cheap at earnings peaks and absurdly expensive in recessions (2009's plain P/E hit 120 because earnings collapsed, not because stocks were dear). Robert Shiller and John Campbell showed high CAPE readings have historically preceded lower long-run returns.
What is the S&P 500's Shiller P/E now?: About 40.3 (as of Sep 8, 2026), versus a long-run median of 16.6 since 1881 — higher than 98.7% of all months on record. The plain trailing P/E is 25.8.
Does a high CAPE mean the market will fall?: No — it has almost no power to time the next year. What the record shows is that high starting CAPEs have been followed by below-average returns over the next 10+ years, on average. The market spent most of the 1990s 'expensive' by CAPE while doubling. It is a long-horizon expected-return gauge, not a crash signal.

Notes & related#

Series: Robert Shiller's long-run S&P data (monthly) where published, extended through Sep 8, 2026 by our stitched estimate: the ten-year real-earnings average continues on current members' aggregate SEC-filed trailing earnings (scaled to match Shiller's level at the overlap), inflation-adjusted with FRED CPI, priced at the latest close. For what earnings are doing, see S&P 500 earnings. Not investment advice.

ChartRow is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P Global, or Nasdaq, Inc. "S&P 500®" and "Dow Jones®" are registered trademarks of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC; "Nasdaq-100®" is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. They are used here only to identify the indexes discussed. All index-related figures on this page are independently derived from public sources — SEC filings, Robert Shiller's public dataset, and our own computations — not from any index provider's data feed.