Average Dow Jones return

Over the last 10 years the Dow Jones has returned +13.0% a year (CAGR) with dividends reinvested — +10.9% from price alone, and +9.4% after inflation. Since 1999 the annualized figure is +8.9%. Every standard window, through Oct 2, 2026:

Window	Since	Total return /yr	Price only /yr	Dividends /yr	After inflation /yr
1 year	Oct 2, 2025	+11.52%	+9.90%	+1.62%	+8.61%
3 years	Oct 3, 2023	+17.58%	+15.71%	+1.87%	+14.42%
5 years	Oct 4, 2021	+10.40%	+8.50%	+1.90%	+6.32%
10 years	Oct 3, 2016	+13.02%	+10.86%	+2.16%	+9.42%
15 years	Oct 3, 2011	+13.34%	+11.03%	+2.30%	+10.44%
20 years	Oct 2, 2006	+10.03%	+7.67%	+2.36%	+7.29%
28.7 years (all data)	Jan 20, 1998	+8.93%	+6.73%	+2.20%	+6.21%

Annualized (CAGR) from DIA daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.

The years behind the average#

“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 27 full calendar years, the market finished positive 78% of the time, with a best year of +29.6% (2013) and a worst of -32.2% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +9.6% and the median +9.7% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +8.9%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.