Average Nasdaq Composite return

Over the last 10 years the Nasdaq Composite has returned +18.8% a year (CAGR) with dividends reinvested — +17.8% from price alone, and +15.1% after inflation. Since 2004 the annualized figure is +12.9%. Every standard window, through Oct 2, 2026:

Window	Since	Total return /yr	Price only /yr	Dividends /yr	After inflation /yr
1 year	Oct 2, 2025	+19.95%	+19.30%	+0.64%	+16.82%
3 years	Oct 3, 2023	+28.52%	+27.71%	+0.81%	+25.06%
5 years	Oct 4, 2021	+14.91%	+14.10%	+0.81%	+10.66%
10 years	Oct 3, 2016	+18.84%	+17.77%	+1.07%	+15.06%
15 years	Oct 3, 2011	+18.82%	+17.78%	+1.04%	+15.78%
20 years	Oct 2, 2006	+14.06%	+13.31%	+0.75%	+11.22%
23 years	Oct 3, 2003	+12.89%	+12.24%	+0.64%	+10.03%

Annualized (CAGR) from ONEQ daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.

The years behind the average#

“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 22 full calendar years, the market finished positive 82% of the time, with a best year of +45.7% (2023) and a worst of -40.2% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +14.8% and the median +14.9% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +12.9%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.