Average Nasdaq-100 return

Over the last 10 years the Nasdaq-100 has returned +21.1% a year (CAGR) with dividends reinvested — +20.3% from price alone, and +17.2% after inflation. Since 2000 the annualized figure is +10.7%. Every standard window, through Oct 2, 2026:

Window	Since	Total return /yr	Price only /yr	Dividends /yr	After inflation /yr
1 year	Oct 2, 2025	+24.34%	+23.76%	+0.58%	+21.10%
3 years	Oct 3, 2023	+29.05%	+28.32%	+0.73%	+25.57%
5 years	Oct 4, 2021	+17.00%	+16.30%	+0.70%	+12.67%
10 years	Oct 3, 2016	+21.10%	+20.26%	+0.84%	+17.24%
15 years	Oct 3, 2011	+20.54%	+19.60%	+0.93%	+17.46%
20 years	Oct 2, 2006	+16.44%	+15.76%	+0.68%	+13.54%
27.6 years (all data)	Mar 10, 1999	+10.70%	+10.24%	+0.47%	+7.91%

Annualized (CAGR) from QQQ daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.

The years behind the average#

“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 26 full calendar years, the market finished positive 77% of the time, with a best year of +54.9% (2023) and a worst of -41.9% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +12.2% and the median +18.7% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +10.7%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.