Average US Stock Market return

Over the last 10 years the US Stock Market has returned +14.9% a year (CAGR) with dividends reinvested — +13.0% from price alone, and +11.2% after inflation. Since 2002 the annualized figure is +9.8%. Every standard window, through Oct 2, 2026:

Window	Since	Total return /yr	Price only /yr	Dividends /yr	After inflation /yr
1 year	Oct 2, 2025	+15.94%	+14.63%	+1.31%	+12.92%
3 years	Oct 3, 2023	+23.41%	+21.84%	+1.57%	+20.09%
5 years	Oct 4, 2021	+12.83%	+11.27%	+1.56%	+8.66%
10 years	Oct 3, 2016	+14.86%	+13.04%	+1.81%	+11.20%
15 years	Oct 3, 2011	+15.57%	+13.60%	+1.97%	+12.62%
20 years	Oct 2, 2006	+11.13%	+9.16%	+1.97%	+8.37%
25.3 years (all data)	Jun 15, 2001	+9.77%	+7.87%	+1.91%	+7.08%

Annualized (CAGR) from VTI daily closes at exact anniversary dates; inflation adjustment uses CPI (CPIAUCSL). The dividends column is the reinvested-dividend contribution — total return minus price return.

The years behind the average#

“Average” hides how lumpy the ride is: across 24 full calendar years, the market finished positive 83% of the time, with a best year of +33.4% (2013) and a worst of -37.0% (2008). The arithmetic mean of single years is +11.5% and the median +16.5% — but compounding through the crashes brings the realized annualized return to +9.8%. Almost no individual year lands near the average.