US Treasury Yield Curve
The yield curve plots US Treasury yields across maturities (1 month to 30 years). When short-term yields rise above long-term yields — an inversion — it has historically preceded recessions. Data from the St. Louis Fed (FRED), refreshed daily.
10Y−2Y spread: +0.33% — last inversion ended August 27, 2024 after 537 trading days.
Treasury Yield Curve
Today vs past market tops & bottoms10Y–2Y Spread
Below zero = inverted. Shaded = NBER recession.
Yields by maturity
| Maturity | Today | 1 month ago | 1 year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.91% | 3.79% | 4.24% |
| 3M | 4.00% | 3.86% | 4.08% |
| 6M | 4.07% | 3.95% | 3.83% |
| 1Y | 4.28% | 3.98% | 3.66% |
| 2Y | 4.56% | 4.17% | 3.56% |
| 5Y | 4.75% | 4.36% | 3.63% |
| 7Y | 4.84% | 4.51% | 3.81% |
| 10Y | 4.95% | 4.68% | 4.06% |
| 20Y | 5.39% | 5.25% | 4.65% |
| 30Y | 5.37% | 5.25% | 4.68% |
10Y–2Y inversions in our data (since 1976)
| Began | Ended | Trading days | Deepest |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2022 | August 27, 2024 | 537 | -1.08% |
| May 30, 2007 | June 6, 2007 | 5 | -0.04% |
| May 3, 2007 | May 22, 2007 | 13 | -0.06% |
| August 17, 2006 | March 21, 2007 | 147 | -0.19% |
| June 30, 2006 | July 27, 2006 | 18 | -0.07% |
| June 8, 2006 | June 29, 2006 | 15 | -0.06% |
| March 21, 2006 | March 30, 2006 | 7 | -0.05% |
| January 31, 2006 | March 8, 2006 | 25 | -0.16% |
| February 11, 2000 | December 27, 2000 | 220 | -0.52% |
| February 2, 2000 | February 10, 2000 | 6 | -0.13% |
| July 21, 1998 | July 28, 1998 | 5 | -0.03% |
| June 15, 1998 | July 10, 1998 | 18 | -0.07% |
| March 8, 1990 | March 30, 1990 | 16 | -0.14% |
| September 18, 1989 | October 12, 1989 | 17 | -0.20% |
| August 11, 1989 | September 14, 1989 | 23 | -0.18% |
| January 4, 1989 | June 30, 1989 | 123 | -0.45% |
| December 13, 1988 | December 22, 1988 | 7 | -0.03% |
| June 4, 1982 | July 12, 1982 | 25 | -0.34% |
| January 20, 1982 | May 20, 1982 | 83 | -0.71% |
| September 12, 1980 | October 26, 1981 | 278 | -1.70% |
| August 18, 1978 | May 2, 1980 | 423 | -2.41% |
Episodes of 5+ consecutive trading days below zero.
Methodology & sources
Yields are constant-maturity US Treasury rates published by the Federal Reserve (FRED series DGS1MO–DGS30); the spread is FRED's T10Y2Y (10-year minus 2-year). An "inversion" here means the 10Y–2Y spread closed below zero. Our data begins in 1976, which covers every 10Y–2Y inversion FRED publishes. Updated twice daily. See the broader Market Valuation & Macro dashboard for rates, inflation, volatility, and more.
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED). For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
FAQ#
- What is the US Treasury yield curve?
- The yield curve plots US Treasury yields across maturities, from 1 month to 30 years. Its shape reflects the market's expectations for growth and interest rates — normally longer maturities pay more than shorter ones.
- Is the yield curve inverted right now?
- As of September 11, 2026, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is +0.33%, so the yield curve is not inverted.
- Why does an inverted yield curve matter?
- The curve inverts when short-term yields rise above long-term yields. Historically, a sustained 10Y–2Y inversion has preceded every US recession in recent decades, which is why it's watched closely as a recession warning — though the lead time varies.
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