Buffett indicator: 260% estimate, Oct 20, 2026
The total market value of US stocks divided by US GDP. At 260% it is above every quarter since 1951; the median is 72%. The Federal Reserve's latest official reading is 255% for Q2 2026.
Warren Buffett called stock market value against the size of the economy “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment” (Fortune, December 10, 2001).
Market value to GDP since 1951#
Quarter-end readings. The dashed line is the median since 1951; the marker is today's estimate.
How it's calculated
Buffett indicator = market value of US corporate stock ÷ GDP
Today's estimate: the Fed's Q2 2026 value of $83.1T, moved by the US stock market's price change since Jun 30, 2026 (+1.9%, VTI), is $84.7T. Divided by GDP of $32.6T (Q2 2026, annual rate), that is 260%.
- Market value: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1), table B.103, nonfinancial corporate business, corporate equities at market value (FRED NCBEILQ027S). Quarterly, published about ten weeks after each quarter ends.
- GDP: Bureau of Economic Analysis, nominal GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (FRED GDP).
- Since the last quarter: the closing price of VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF.
- The idea: Warren Buffett and Carol Loomis, “Warren Buffett on the Stock Market,” Fortune, December 10, 2001.
Buffett divided all publicly traded securities by GNP. The Fed's series counts nonfinancial companies, listed and private, at market value, so it leaves out banks and insurers, and versions built on the Wilshire 5000 read at different levels. Compare a reading with this series' own history.
Buffett indicator by year, 1951–2026#
| Year | Market value ÷ GDP | Market value | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | 255% | $83.1T | $32.6T |
| 2025 | 229% | $72.0T | $31.5T |
| 2024 | 210% | $62.8T | $29.9T |
| 2023 | 182% | $51.8T | $28.5T |
| 2022 | 157% | $42.1T | $26.8T |
| 2021 | 219% | $54.3T | $24.8T |
| 2020 | 198% | $43.8T | $22.1T |
| 2019 | 160% | $35.1T | $21.9T |
| 2018 | 134% | $27.9T | $20.9T |
| 2017 | 150% | $30.0T | $20.0T |
| 2016 | 135% | $25.9T | $19.1T |
| 2015 | 132% | $24.3T | $18.4T |
| 2014 | 141% | $25.3T | $17.9T |
| 2013 | 132% | $22.7T | $17.2T |
| 2012 | 106% | $17.5T | $16.4T |
| 2011 | 98% | $15.6T | $15.8T |
| 2010 | 102% | $15.6T | $15.3T |
| 2009 | 93% | $13.7T | $14.7T |
| 2008 | 76% | $11.0T | $14.6T |
| 2007 | 115% | $16.9T | $14.7T |
| 2006 | 114% | $16.0T | $14.0T |
| 2005 | 107% | $14.2T | $13.3T |
| 2004 | 108% | $13.5T | $12.5T |
| 2003 | 101% | $11.9T | $11.8T |
| 2002 | 84% | $9.3T | $11.1T |
| 2001 | 112% | $11.9T | $10.7T |
| 2000 | 128% | $13.4T | $10.4T |
| 1999 | 155% | $15.4T | $9.9T |
| 1998 | 128% | $11.9T | $9.3T |
| 1997 | 108% | $9.4T | $8.8T |
| 1996 | 90% | $7.4T | $8.3T |
| 1995 | 83% | $6.4T | $7.8T |
| 1994 | 65% | $4.8T | $7.5T |
| 1993 | 69% | $4.9T | $7.0T |
| 1992 | 65% | $4.4T | $6.7T |
| 1991 | 64% | $4.0T | $6.3T |
| 1990 | 49% | $3.0T | $6.0T |
| 1989 | 55% | $3.1T | $5.7T |
| 1988 | 47% | $2.6T | $5.4T |
| 1987 | 46% | $2.3T | $5.0T |
| 1986 | 48% | $2.2T | $4.7T |
| 1985 | 43% | $1.9T | $4.4T |
| 1984 | 37% | $1.6T | $4.1T |
| 1983 | 43% | $1.6T | $3.8T |
| 1982 | 41% | $1.4T | $3.4T |
| 1981 | 37% | $1.2T | $3.3T |
| 1980 | 45% | $1.3T | $3.0T |
| 1979 | 37% | $1.0T | $2.7T |
| 1978 | 35% | $0.9T | $2.5T |
| 1977 | 38% | $0.8T | $2.2T |
| 1976 | 48% | $0.9T | $1.9T |
| 1975 | 43% | $0.8T | $1.8T |
| 1974 | 35% | $0.6T | $1.6T |
| 1973 | 55% | $0.8T | $1.5T |
| 1972 | 78% | $1.0T | $1.3T |
| 1971 | 69% | $0.8T | $1.2T |
| 1970 | 65% | $0.7T | $1.1T |
| 1969 | 68% | $0.7T | $1.0T |
| 1968 | 87% | $0.8T | $1.0T |
| 1967 | 81% | $0.7T | $0.9T |
| 1966 | 66% | $0.5T | $0.8T |
| 1965 | 81% | $0.6T | $0.8T |
| 1964 | 78% | $0.5T | $0.7T |
| 1963 | 71% | $0.5T | $0.7T |
| 1962 | 69% | $0.4T | $0.6T |
| 1961 | 75% | $0.4T | $0.6T |
| 1960 | 68% | $0.4T | $0.5T |
| 1959 | 69% | $0.4T | $0.5T |
| 1958 | 65% | $0.3T | $0.5T |
| 1957 | 52% | $0.2T | $0.5T |
| 1956 | 58% | $0.3T | $0.5T |
| 1955 | 56% | $0.2T | $0.4T |
| 1954 | 49% | $0.2T | $0.4T |
| 1953 | 37% | $0.1T | $0.4T |
| 1952 | 39% | $0.1T | $0.4T |
| 1951 | 41% | $0.1T | $0.4T |
Each year's fourth quarter, or its latest quarter on record.
FAQ#
- What is the Buffett indicator today?
- About 260% (our estimate for Oct 20, 2026), above every quarter since 1951. The Federal Reserve's latest official reading is 255% for Q2 2026; the median since 1951 is 72%, and the dot-com peak was 163% in Q1 2000.
- Does a high Buffett indicator mean stocks will fall?
- Not on a timetable. In 2001 Buffett wrote that buying stocks tends to work well when the ratio falls to 70–80% and is risky as it nears 200%, where it stood in 1999–2000. It measures how expensive stocks are against the economy, not when that changes: it first passed 200% in Q1 2021 and has been above it in 12 of the 22 quarters since.
Related: S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio · what valuations have meant for the next decade. Not investment advice.