US Bond Market drawdown: 18.6% below the all-time high
US Bond Market is 18.6% below its all-time high, set Aug 4, 2020 (as of market close, Jul 23, 2026). The chart shows every day as a percentage of the highest level reached up to that point: 100% means a fresh record, everything below is a drawdown.
- Below all-time high
- −18.6%
- 81.4% of ATH
- All-time high
- $119.6
- Aug 4, 2020
- Time below the high
- 6.0 yrs
- since Aug 4, 2020
- Worst-ever drawdown
- −23.4%
- Oct 19, 2023
- Longest underwater
- 6.0 yrs
- between all-time highs
- Today's level first reached
- Sep 29, 2003
- 22.8 yrs ago
- Last time this deep
- never before
- no prior −18.6% episode
% of all-time high since 2003#
The classic underwater chart (drawdown curve), drawn as % of the all-time high — 100% is a fresh record, everything below it is time spent underwater.
% of all-time high on the price basis — the all-time high considers the full history of US Bond Market, including years before the visible window. Dividends are excluded on this basis (the convention headlines use).
The deepest drawdowns on record#
Every decline of 15% or more from an all-time high (price basis), deepest first.
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Peak → trough | Recovered by | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2020 | Oct 19, 2023 | −23.4% | 3.2 yrs | not yet | 6.0 yrs+ |
| Mar 24, 2004 | Oct 10, 2008 | −15.4% | 4.5 yrs | Jan 5, 2009 | 4.8 yrs |
Price basis (no dividends) — the convention crash histories use. With dividends reinvested, recoveries arrive years earlier; switch the basis on the chart above to see it.
Drawdown vs what came next#
One dot per month since 2003: how far US Bond Market stood below its all-time high, and the total return over the following 1, 5 and 10 years.
Read this with survivorship bias in mind: a single asset's history is one surviving sample, so past recoveries here say little about the odds ahead. Monthly windows also overlap heavily (they are not independent samples). Not investment advice.
FAQ
- How far is US Bond Market from its all-time high?
- US Bond Market is currently 18.6% below its all-time high, set Aug 4, 2020 (as of market close, Jul 23, 2026). Prices only, the convention headlines use; with dividends reinvested the gap is usually smaller.
- What was the biggest US Bond Market drawdown ever?
- The deepest decline on record in our data (since 2003) took US Bond Market 23.4% below its prior high, bottoming Oct 19, 2023. The table on this page lists every major episode with its peak, trough and recovery date.
Methodology & related#
Daily data since 2003 from AGG, US Bond Market's tracking fund; no free deep history exists for US Bond Market — for a 150-year drawdown record see the S&P 500 drawdown page. The price basis excludes dividends; the total-return basis reinvests them; the real basis additionally deflates by CPI. See also returns by year, 150 years of returns and the rolling-returns explorer. Past performance does not predict future returns; not investment advice.